Application of auto-regressive time series model to marginal oil field production in Nigeria

Some concern has been expressed over the continuous low production from Marginal oil field. This problem ascribed to multitude of hindrances occasioned by nature earth formation in zone. Attempts ascertain character or complexion such problems have often eluded researchers and operators study adopts use auto-regressive time series model find out root cause mechanism that generate high output marginal The correlogram captures memory generated process was established. And judiciously picking choosing right lags correlogram, replicates also result obtained shows there is a close tracking forecast with actual. Evidently, Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) 5.07% showing errors are suggesting robust if not sure-fire.